Phillies better, Perez needs Castro

The Philadelphia Phillies are a game away from sweeping the Washington Nationals in their current four-game series and are playing the kind of baseball that Mets fans wish the New Yorkers would play. But the Mets aren't, and there's a good reason for it.

The Mets aren't as good as the Phillies.

In the infield, only Wright is having a better season than his Philly equivalent, who these days is Abraham Nunez. And in the outfield, Jayson Werth is better than both Lastings Milledge and Shawn Green; Aaron Rowand (.380 OBP, .522 SLG) has a higher OPS (OBP+SLG) than Carlos Beltran (.356 and .525), and he's almost as good a fielder; and though I'm not a fan of Pat Burrell, whose outfield play reminds me of Ron Swoboda's in his early days, Burrell's hitting on a par with Moises Alou. Burrell's on-base percentage and slugging average are .403 and .508 (.911) respectively; whereas Alou's are .394 and .527 (.921), and Burrell's missed far fewer games with injuries.

Sure, the Mets have "bigger name" pitchers, such as Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez; however, no Mets pitcher has been as good this season as Phillies starter Cole Hamels, and no Mets reliever has been as good as Phillies reliever J. C. Romero, whose ERA is 2.13.

Further, the Mets bottom two starters, John Maine and Oliver Perez, have been too inconsistent for my liking.

What Perez seems to need

Perez did do something yesterday that he had only done once before this season on May 13. He pitched eight innings, averaging only 13 pitches an inning, a very low number for him.

I think having Castro catch the game had something to do with Perez's performance. Here are the outcomes of Perez's last 10 starts and each game's starting catcher:



I don't think it's a coincidence that all three of the Mets losses and both of Perez's losses (8/3 and 8/29) came with Lo Duca catching. Sure, Lo Duca has caught more games than the others, however, in my opinion when Castro's behind the plate Perez is a better pitcher.

Perez appears to be a "high-maintenance" player, as evidenced by the comments Mets manager made after yesterday's game. “I’m always on his case,” Randolph said. “He needs to prove to himself that when he attacks the zone and trusts his stuff, that’s the kind of pitcher he can be. I told him how proud I was of him.”

Perez is an adult. The fact that Randolph believes he needs to be "always on his case" makes me wonder whether Perez lacks the maturity to succeed consistently in the majors and why Randolph feels he needs to be a cheerleader for a 26 year old.

The Mets have eight games left to play. Perez will pitch at least one of them. Let's hope that Castro's his catcher.

Mets desperate for doctor who can stop the bleeding

Thanks to the New York Mets, the Washington Nationals are pulling away from the cellar-dwelling Florida Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies are now only 1.5 games away from tying the Mets for first place.

The Mets are in a free fall without a parachute.

Why have the once-mighty Mets fallen so fast?

It starts with the bullpen, a pen that's noticeably weaker than last season's.

It continues with the moves that Randolph's not making. Reyes is wearing down from playing so many games. Start Anderson Hernandez at shortstop for a game or two. Several days ago the Mets named Hernandez the Sterling Minor League Organizational Player-of-the-Year. Give him a chance to play.

The Mets slide's been hastened along by the starting pitching. John Maine hasn't been getting the job done; Oliver Perez's last start was deplorable; and Orlando Hernandez's injuries have minimized his availability. In his last start, his lingering foot injury diminished his effectiveness so much he was ineffective.

Yesterday, Maine didn't belong on the mound. In 4.1 innings he gave up 11 hits and eight runs. But Maine wasn't the one who kept himself on the mound that long. Willie Randolph did. I'm clueless as to why Randolph would allow Maine to give up so many runs and hits before pulling him from the game. For the first time, I think that Randolph is the wrong man to manage the Mets. He can't stop the bleeding. Will the front office wait until the Mets bleed to death before replacing him.

After Randolph pulled Maine, four Mets relievers, amazingly, pitched scoreless ball for 3.2 innings. So if Randolph had pulled Maine in the fifth before he'd given up five runs in that inning, the Mets would have won the game.

So it ends with the manager, Willie Randolph. Commenting on the Mets current losing streak, Randolph said: "This is not Armageddon to us." What is it then? A picnic?

Armageddon is a decisive conflict. In a pennant race in which the Mets are losing ground every day, if Randolph doesn't view it as a decisive conflict the Mets are really in trouble.

Randolph added that "We still feel good about where we are ... we, as a group, are going to keep things in perspective. For us, there is a calm and a feeling of wellness, even though we haven't looked that way." When I read that I couldn't believe he said that. There's still a "feeling of wellness"? This team is in the midst of a losing streak that's sickening most Mets fans, and Willie's talking about wellness.

The Mets are a team with intensity but not focus, an intensity that some players have trouble keeping under control. If there's any difference between the Phillies and the Mets other than the Phillies are a betting hitting team, it's that the Phillies, as a team, are focused on winning. The Mets, on the other hand, seem more focused on talking about why they're not winning.

Right now, the Mets are in a sorry state. Unfortunately, no one appears able to pull them out. Unless someone rises to the occasion, the Mets will continue to sink in the standings until they're out of the pennant race.

Start the best

One of the visitors who leaves comments on this blog, Dave, gave a lot of thought to the one he left on September 9; however, his philosophy as how the New York Mets should fill vacancies in their 2008 starting rotation differs dramatically from mine.

I'd commented that I'd set aside spots for Tom Glavine and El Duque, if they both return, and put the other three up for grabs. That seemed to surprise Dave, who responded "Have they [Maine and Perez] not already proven themselves as legitimate starters this season?"

That's a valid question.

"Proven" themselves? To me, no.

In my book, a pitcher has proven himself when he can produce quality starts on a consistent basis. As of September 8th, Tom Glavine had 21 quality starts in 29 starts (72%), El Duque 17 in 23 (74%), John Maine 15 in 28 (54%), and Oliver Perez 14 in 25 (56%).

A pitcher who can produce a quality start in at least 70% of his starts has proven himself to me. A pitcher who can only produce a quality start about half the time he's on the mound hasn't. Glavine has proven himself, as has El Duque.

As a result, I'd make both John Maine and Oliver Perez compete for spots with Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Adam Bostick, Jason Vargas, and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets need to give their best pitching prospects a better chance to make it into their rotation than they have in the past. Otherwise,what message are they sending to them? Pitch well so you can pitch for someone else?

In pro football, many coaches in training camp encourage competition for all positions except possibly a few manned by stars. It adds a spark to the camp. If the Mets did that next string training with their starting rotation, I believe it would have the same effect. If either Maine or Perez complains, so be it. Let's see if they have the wherewithal to ward off the challengers. And if they don't, that should send a message loud-and-clear to the Mets front office.

It's all about winning, not maintaining the status quo just to keep players happy.

To make matters more interesting, the Mets should invite Dylan Owen to spring training. Last night in Brooklyn's first playoff game, Owen pitched five innings of four-hit, no walk, shutout ball in which he struck out seven. He's continuing to pitch in the playoffs as he did during the regular season when he led the New York-Penn League in both wins and ERA while compiling a strikeout to walk ratio of almost 6 to 1. If any Mets' pitching prospect deserves a chance to rub shoulders with its big leaguers, it's Owen. And though he's a long shot to win a spot in the rotation, he's a winner, so I wouldn't bet against him.

Finally — Dave, keep the comments coming. You've stirred up my thinking, and I really appreciate it.

Lo Duca drives in seven, Niese wins one

In Cincinnati, New York Mets pitcher Oliver Perez forget to bring his control with him to Great American Ball Park. In five innings he gave up only four hits, but he walked five batters. He threw 90 pitches; only 52, or 58%, made it into the strike zone. If it weren't for the Mets hitters, the five runs that Perez gave up would have resulted in his 10th loss rather than his 13th win. One Met alone outscored the entire Reds team.

Paul Lo Duca must have thought the game was an extension of batting practice. In five at-bats he knocked in seven runs, six coming on two three-run homers. Before yesterday Lo Duca had only hit five home runs all season.

This afternoon, the Mets send John Maine to the mound in their try to sweep their second series in a row. Though Maine's won 14, he went 2-3 in August with a 6.32 ERA. He also walked more than twice as many batters as he did in any other month this season. If Maine can't reverse his recent run of poorer performances, the Mets could be in trouble when the play-offs roll around.

Another member of the Mets organization seems ready for the play-offs, which start for them tonight. The Mets' Triple-A affiliate, the New Orleans Zephyrs, won its regular season finale Monday night 6-2. It newest reliever, Carlos Muniz, a Double-A call-up, pitched two innings of one-hit, no-run ball for the Z's. Better still, in three outings with the Zephyrs, Muniz has pitched 5.2 innings without surrendering a run, earned or unearned. At 26, Muniz is a bit old to be considered a prospect, but he seems to have the "right stuff." In 44 games with the Binghamton Mets he had a 2.45 ERA.

And in the Florida State League play-offs, the St. Lucie Mets won their first game behind the one-hit pitching of Jon Niese. In his six innings, he struck out nine. During the regular season, Niese led St. Lucie with 11 wins, the third highest number in the FSL.

But there was bad news for Brooklyn. The Cyclones lost to their archrival, the Staten Island Yankees, 5-4. The Yankees scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth off loser Eddie Kunz, who's been finding pitching in Single-A much tougher than for the Oregon State Beavers. After walking two batters, the second intentionally, Kunz gave up a single to Jose Gil, which ended the game. Kunz's ERA is now 8.10. Did the Mets make a mistake making him their top draft choice?

Omar, what have you done?

Ouch!

What the Phillies did to the Mets stunk — and stung.

I'm disappointed that the Phillies swept the Mets, but I'm not surprised. The team that New York Mets general manager Omar Minaya assembled for this season just isn't that good. Sure, they've been in first place all season, but they also had losing records in both June and July. What does that say about the Phillies and Braves performance up until the start of the latest Mets-Phillies series?

Minaya's worst move was to weaken the bullpen. He wasn't responsible for Sanchez' unavailability, but he did bring in the three other S's: Sosa, Schoenweis, and Sele. And he didn't deem Bradford worthy of re-signing though, last season, Bradford had an ERA of 2.90. He also traded away four other relievers who had spent most of their Mets careers in the minors: Matt Lindstrom, Henry Owens, Heath Bell and Royce Ring, all of whom are now on big league rosters. In 2006, Ring, in 11 games with the Mets, posted a 2.13 ERA and had a 0.789 WHIP. Not low enough?

What did the Mets get in return? Two minor league pitchers who have underperformed in Triple-A, Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick, an outfielder, Ben Johnson, and reliever Jon Atkins, who spent all of last season on the Padres roster.

When the trade was made, the New York Mets Web site had this comment by Minaya:

"It may not be a sexy trade," Minaya said in Florida. "You have to remember, the little ones are what count sometimes. Those are the ones."

Later in the article, Minaya said this about Atkins:

"Jon Adkins has had success on the Major League level and can pitch multiple innings," Minaya said. "He's another quality arm to add to our bullpen staff."

Adkins' "quality arm" has thrown most of its pitches in 2007 for the New Orleans Zephyrs. He's pitched 61.2 innings for the Zephyrs and one for the New York Mets.

Johnson had 27 at-bats for the Mets in which he hit .185. With New Orleans, in 188 at-bats, he had a slugging average of only .356; yet, when the trade was made, Minaya said "Ben Johnson is a versatile outfielder who can play all three spots, has speed and shown some power."

Johnson spent most of this season in Triple-A until he injured his ankle in a game, disabling him for the rest of this season.

It appears that Minaya counts differently than do most Mets fans. The addition of Johnson and Atkins balanced against the subtraction of Ring and Bell results in a loss on my calculator.

But it was another Minaya acquisition who made one of the major blunders in the Phillies sweep. In game 3, with the game tied 2-2 because of the two homers Oliver Perez surrendered in the first inning, pitcher Jamie Moyer was the Phillies lead-off batter in the fifth inning. All Perez had to do was to throw strikes. Nothing fancy. Moyer was hitting about .148. But Perez, never known for his control, walked Moyer. Minutes later, Moyer scored the winning run on Burrell's sacrifice fly.

Perez's record is now 12-9, close to what I think is the best that can be expected of him in a season. To me, his initials stand for "Over-rated Pitcher." He had that one fluke season with the Pirates in 2004 and, even then, only finished 12-10.

Awhile ago, Steve Phillips, former general manager, predicted that the Mets wouldn't make the play-offs. I hope he's wrong; however, if the Mets keep playing as they did against Philadelphia, he won't be.

Strange things sometimes happen in baseball

Yesterday, both the Mets Oliver Perez and the Zephyrs Jason Vargas pitched similar games. Each pitched seven innings of shutout ball. Perez last pitched that many innings of runless baseball on June 15. When Vargas last did that wasn't available on the Zephyrs Web site. The big difference between the two was in walks and strikeouts with Vargas showing better control of his pitches.

Pitcher	IP	ER	Hits	BB	SO	PC-ST
Perez	7	0	3	5	6	119-71
Vargas	7	0	4	1	8	101-66

I found it strange because neither has been pitching that well of late, especially Vargas. For both of them to pitch good games on the same day was just amazin' to me. May it happen more often.

The two don't compare as well in their last 10 starts. In his last 10, Perez was 6-4, giving up 26 earned runs and 58 hits in 59.2 innings. His ERA was 3.92. Vargas didn't fare as well. In his last 10, Vargas, also a lefty, was 3-3. He gave up more earned runs (33) and more hits (63) in fewer innings (51.1). His ERA was 5.79 ERA.

A better starting rotation

Yesterday's amazing performance against the Nats by the 41-year-old Orlando Hernandez makes me wish the Mets had a four-man rotation, as teams in years past did with their starters. With that rotation, Hernandez and Tom Glavine could pitch more games while the other three starters, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Brian Lawrence would get fewer starts.

Further, given the performance of the Mets starters beyond Glavine and Hernandez, for my third starter I'd prefer Brian Bannister. This past Friday Bannister pitched a complete game for Kansas City, picking up his ninth win. Only two Mets have pitched complete games this season. Glavine and Maine have each pitched one.

Who would I take as my fourth starter? John Maine. My fifth starter would be Perez.

A way to measure a pitcher's effectiveness is through the use of two statistics: VORP and WARP.

Here is the 2006 VORP and WARP for each member of my starting rotation.

Pitcher	VORP	WARP	Wins
Glavine	37.1	5.5	15
Hernandez	19.4	3.5	9
Bannister	6.8	1.0	0
Maine	19.3	3.0	6
Perez	-1.9	0.3	1

VORP means Value Above Replacement Player. For a pitcher, a positive number represents the number of fewer runs that the pitcher prevented the other teams from scoring compared with what a replacement-level pitcher would have surrendered. A negative VORP means that he gave up more runs than a replacement-level pitcher would have. Looking at the VORPs in the above table, Glavine was the most valuable starter on the Mets.

For the Mets, Jason Vargas, Mike Pelfrey, and Dave Williams, all of whom have been Triple-A call-ups this season, represent replacement-level pitchers.

WARP means Wins Above Replacement Player. WARP refers to the number of additional games a pitcher won for his team beyond what a replacement-level pitcher would have won. For example, last season Glavine won 15 games. In his place, a replacement-level pitcher would have won about nine.

Why would I make Bannister my #3 starter ahead of Maine and Perez? Since the All-Star break he's gone 4-2 with a 2.64 ERA. In comparison, though Maine had a higher VORP last season than did Bannister, this season since the break Maine's been 3-3 with a 6.31 ERA and Perez has been 4-2 with a 4.39.

By the way, Ambiorix Burgos, the reliever whom the Mets traded Bannister for, is not even in the majors. He was pitching for the GCL Mets, a Rookie League team, and just joined the Zephyrs.

Big night for the Big Club

Yesterday, a Single-A pitcher who hadn't lost did, a Double-A reliever saved his 22nd game, a Triple-A pitcher who had disappeared from the pitching scene reappeared, and a Big Club starter who got bombed in his first two innings calmed down and notched his tenth win.

Single-A: In Lowell, MA, Brooklyn starter Dillon Gee picked up his first defeat in the Cyclones 2-0 loss. Gee gave up both two runs. Tim Stronach followed Gee, pitching three innings of hitless relief. Gee's ERA is still under 2.00 (1.91); however, Stronach's is even better at 1.26.

Double-A: Binghamton won at home, 5-2, beating the Trenton Thunder, a Yankees farm team. The B-Mets scored all five runs in the sixth as 10 batters came to the plate. Left fielder Jamar Hill's line-drive single to center in the big inning was one of his three hits, elevating his batting average to .357.

Reliever Carlos Muniz saved another game, his 22nd, for the cellar dwellers. Only Connecticut 's Brian Anderson has more, 23. In third place is ex-Met Matt Peterson, who now pitches for Altoona.

Triple-A: Philip Humber, who hadn't pitched for the Zephyrs since July 22, started and pitched four innings. Rumor has it that he had food poisoning. The Zepher's media relations guy failed to return a request for information about Humber's absence.

Humber did well in his return. In four innings he gave up just two hits and a run, though his control was a bit erratic. He walked four. His successor did even better. Willie Collazo held Sacramento run-less to gain his fifth win and lower his ERA to 3.05. In the 93 degree heat, the two Mets threw a lot of pitches, 136. Humber threw 76 of them. The Mets won 4-1.

Majors: Oliver Pérez started last night's Mets game "hyper," according to catcher Ramon Castro, and was lucky to last past the second inning after giving up five runs in the first two. One was Prince Fielder's first inning, three-run blast off the center-field scoreboard that, fortunately, didn't disable it. But then, Pérez settled down, not allowing another run and only two singles during his final four innings while striking out seven, all swinging, including Fielder. He finished the game with 11 K's, his season high.

Fortunately, the bottom of the Mets order saved them from defeat. Ramon Castro hit a three-run shot in the second. Marlon Anderson, starting in center field in place of Lastings Milledge, drove in four runs, three with a third-inning homer. And Shawn Green sent one into the seats in the sixth.

Guillermo Mota pitched last night as he should have the night before when Glavine was seeking his 300th win, giving up no runs, no hits, and no walks in two innings of work. He even struck out Fielder. Did the pressure get to him the night before?