Mets desperate for doctor who can stop the bleeding

Thanks to the New York Mets, the Washington Nationals are pulling away from the cellar-dwelling Florida Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies are now only 1.5 games away from tying the Mets for first place.

The Mets are in a free fall without a parachute.

Why have the once-mighty Mets fallen so fast?

It starts with the bullpen, a pen that's noticeably weaker than last season's.

It continues with the moves that Randolph's not making. Reyes is wearing down from playing so many games. Start Anderson Hernandez at shortstop for a game or two. Several days ago the Mets named Hernandez the Sterling Minor League Organizational Player-of-the-Year. Give him a chance to play.

The Mets slide's been hastened along by the starting pitching. John Maine hasn't been getting the job done; Oliver Perez's last start was deplorable; and Orlando Hernandez's injuries have minimized his availability. In his last start, his lingering foot injury diminished his effectiveness so much he was ineffective.

Yesterday, Maine didn't belong on the mound. In 4.1 innings he gave up 11 hits and eight runs. But Maine wasn't the one who kept himself on the mound that long. Willie Randolph did. I'm clueless as to why Randolph would allow Maine to give up so many runs and hits before pulling him from the game. For the first time, I think that Randolph is the wrong man to manage the Mets. He can't stop the bleeding. Will the front office wait until the Mets bleed to death before replacing him.

After Randolph pulled Maine, four Mets relievers, amazingly, pitched scoreless ball for 3.2 innings. So if Randolph had pulled Maine in the fifth before he'd given up five runs in that inning, the Mets would have won the game.

So it ends with the manager, Willie Randolph. Commenting on the Mets current losing streak, Randolph said: "This is not Armageddon to us." What is it then? A picnic?

Armageddon is a decisive conflict. In a pennant race in which the Mets are losing ground every day, if Randolph doesn't view it as a decisive conflict the Mets are really in trouble.

Randolph added that "We still feel good about where we are ... we, as a group, are going to keep things in perspective. For us, there is a calm and a feeling of wellness, even though we haven't looked that way." When I read that I couldn't believe he said that. There's still a "feeling of wellness"? This team is in the midst of a losing streak that's sickening most Mets fans, and Willie's talking about wellness.

The Mets are a team with intensity but not focus, an intensity that some players have trouble keeping under control. If there's any difference between the Phillies and the Mets other than the Phillies are a betting hitting team, it's that the Phillies, as a team, are focused on winning. The Mets, on the other hand, seem more focused on talking about why they're not winning.

Right now, the Mets are in a sorry state. Unfortunately, no one appears able to pull them out. Unless someone rises to the occasion, the Mets will continue to sink in the standings until they're out of the pennant race.

Start the best

One of the visitors who leaves comments on this blog, Dave, gave a lot of thought to the one he left on September 9; however, his philosophy as how the New York Mets should fill vacancies in their 2008 starting rotation differs dramatically from mine.

I'd commented that I'd set aside spots for Tom Glavine and El Duque, if they both return, and put the other three up for grabs. That seemed to surprise Dave, who responded "Have they [Maine and Perez] not already proven themselves as legitimate starters this season?"

That's a valid question.

"Proven" themselves? To me, no.

In my book, a pitcher has proven himself when he can produce quality starts on a consistent basis. As of September 8th, Tom Glavine had 21 quality starts in 29 starts (72%), El Duque 17 in 23 (74%), John Maine 15 in 28 (54%), and Oliver Perez 14 in 25 (56%).

A pitcher who can produce a quality start in at least 70% of his starts has proven himself to me. A pitcher who can only produce a quality start about half the time he's on the mound hasn't. Glavine has proven himself, as has El Duque.

As a result, I'd make both John Maine and Oliver Perez compete for spots with Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Adam Bostick, Jason Vargas, and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets need to give their best pitching prospects a better chance to make it into their rotation than they have in the past. Otherwise,what message are they sending to them? Pitch well so you can pitch for someone else?

In pro football, many coaches in training camp encourage competition for all positions except possibly a few manned by stars. It adds a spark to the camp. If the Mets did that next string training with their starting rotation, I believe it would have the same effect. If either Maine or Perez complains, so be it. Let's see if they have the wherewithal to ward off the challengers. And if they don't, that should send a message loud-and-clear to the Mets front office.

It's all about winning, not maintaining the status quo just to keep players happy.

To make matters more interesting, the Mets should invite Dylan Owen to spring training. Last night in Brooklyn's first playoff game, Owen pitched five innings of four-hit, no walk, shutout ball in which he struck out seven. He's continuing to pitch in the playoffs as he did during the regular season when he led the New York-Penn League in both wins and ERA while compiling a strikeout to walk ratio of almost 6 to 1. If any Mets' pitching prospect deserves a chance to rub shoulders with its big leaguers, it's Owen. And though he's a long shot to win a spot in the rotation, he's a winner, so I wouldn't bet against him.

Finally — Dave, keep the comments coming. You've stirred up my thinking, and I really appreciate it.

Reds sink the Maine

John Maine continued his slide yesterday, and New York Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson seems unable — or unwilling — to stop it. At the Reds' stadium in Cincinnati, Maine lasted only four and a third innings before being sent to the showers. It was his his second-shortest start of the season. His shortest occurred on August 4 when he lasted only 2.2 innings agains the Cubs.

During yesterday's brief stint, he threw 85 pitches, or about 21 an inning. Worse, he surrendered nine hits, three walks, and six runs, enough to make Willie Randolph wave a white flag and call for the cavalry.

“I think for the first time in a while, I didn’t feel good out there pitching and it showed,” the New York Post quoted Maine as saying.

If he was "feeling good" in his six starts before yesterday's, the Mets are in trouble. His ERA in his last seven starts is 7.07.

Coming into the game to try to stop the Maine massacre was a reliever who should have been called up a month ago. Willie Collazo was not only the best reliever on the Mets' Triple-A farm team, the Zephyrs, he was their best pitcher. He had the lowest ERA of anyone who pitched more than 35 innings (2.46), a WHIP of only 1.11, and a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.6:1. Against a Reds team red-hot for the day, Collazo pitched 1.2 innings of shutout ball. Though he walked one batter and gave up two hits, he also got two batters to hit into double plays.

His successor, fellow Zephyr Philip Humber, didn't fare as well. In the bottom of the seventh, he fell victim to two doubles and a single before he was able to get out of the inning. He did better in the eighth, not allowing a batter to reach base.

The bottom line? It's time to remove Maine from the starting rotation for at least one start and replace him with either Mike Pelfrey or Humber. Give Maine a breather. The season's taken its toll on him.

Radical? Some would consider it to be? Will Willie do it? No. He doesn't like to make radical moves. But in my view, it's riskier to remain with Maine.

***

In Brooklyn, Dylan Owen excelled on the mound again. In seven innings, he surrendered just three singles, didn't walk a batter, and struck out 11. Though the Cyclones won, Owen didn't get the win, but he did lower his ERA to 1.49. He's my nominee for the Mets Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.

Lo Duca drives in seven, Niese wins one

In Cincinnati, New York Mets pitcher Oliver Perez forget to bring his control with him to Great American Ball Park. In five innings he gave up only four hits, but he walked five batters. He threw 90 pitches; only 52, or 58%, made it into the strike zone. If it weren't for the Mets hitters, the five runs that Perez gave up would have resulted in his 10th loss rather than his 13th win. One Met alone outscored the entire Reds team.

Paul Lo Duca must have thought the game was an extension of batting practice. In five at-bats he knocked in seven runs, six coming on two three-run homers. Before yesterday Lo Duca had only hit five home runs all season.

This afternoon, the Mets send John Maine to the mound in their try to sweep their second series in a row. Though Maine's won 14, he went 2-3 in August with a 6.32 ERA. He also walked more than twice as many batters as he did in any other month this season. If Maine can't reverse his recent run of poorer performances, the Mets could be in trouble when the play-offs roll around.

Another member of the Mets organization seems ready for the play-offs, which start for them tonight. The Mets' Triple-A affiliate, the New Orleans Zephyrs, won its regular season finale Monday night 6-2. It newest reliever, Carlos Muniz, a Double-A call-up, pitched two innings of one-hit, no-run ball for the Z's. Better still, in three outings with the Zephyrs, Muniz has pitched 5.2 innings without surrendering a run, earned or unearned. At 26, Muniz is a bit old to be considered a prospect, but he seems to have the "right stuff." In 44 games with the Binghamton Mets he had a 2.45 ERA.

And in the Florida State League play-offs, the St. Lucie Mets won their first game behind the one-hit pitching of Jon Niese. In his six innings, he struck out nine. During the regular season, Niese led St. Lucie with 11 wins, the third highest number in the FSL.

But there was bad news for Brooklyn. The Cyclones lost to their archrival, the Staten Island Yankees, 5-4. The Yankees scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth off loser Eddie Kunz, who's been finding pitching in Single-A much tougher than for the Oregon State Beavers. After walking two batters, the second intentionally, Kunz gave up a single to Jose Gil, which ended the game. Kunz's ERA is now 8.10. Did the Mets make a mistake making him their top draft choice?

Braves can't sink the Maine

With the Triple-A season winding down, it seems that Zephyr starters want to end their seasons on a positive note. The latest working toward that goal was Adam Bostick. Last night against the Round Rock Express, Bostick threw six innings of one-hit ball in the Zephyrs 3-0 victory. The lone hit was a double in the first.

Bostick still had control problems, walking five, but he did strike out seven. He threw 91 pitches of which 56, or 62%, were strikes. It was Bostick's sixth win agains seven losses.

The losing pitcher was Chan Ho Park, the ex-Met. The loss was his 14th; he's won six.

In the Zephyrs previous game, another ex-Met, Dave Williams, pitched well. He only surrendered four hits and two runs in seven innings. And two games ago, Jason Vargas, who also pitched briefly for the New York Mets this season, gave up only five hits and two runs in 5.1 innings. The Zephyrs won both games.

In Double-A, the Binghamton Mets lost as starter Robert Paulk lasted only 4.1 innings, surrendering all four runs that Akron scored in the game. Though he struck out seven, he also gave up seven hits and three walks, including a home run.

In Single-A, St. Lucie won behind the seven-hit pitching of Deolis Guerra. Though he gave up three runs in 5.1 innings, no Mets reliever gave up any, so the Mets were able to beat Daytona 6-3.

Brooklyn got another stellar pitching performance from Dylan Owen, who upped his record to 9-1. In six innings, he limited Aberdeen to four hits, one unearned run, and struck out four. He walked none while lowering his ERA to 1.65. Owen continues to lead the NY-Penn League in Wins, ERA, and WHIP, which before yesterday's game was 0.94.

On the hitting side, Cyclones leadoff batter Ezequiel Carrera pounded out four hits to up his average to .378. This guy can hit. Before being promoted this season to the Cyclones he hit .341 with the GCL Mets. In 179 at-bats with them his OPS was .866.

And finally, the New York Mets. Mets fans can breathe again. John Maine, who's been struggling for awhile, ended the Mets struggles last night. Against Atlanta, another pennant contender, Maine returned to pitching the way he did in the first half of the season when he deserved to be selected to the All-Star team (which didn't happen). He held the Braves to just three hits and one run, striking out eight. He still threw a lot of pitches (112), of which 62 were strikes (55%), but was able to last seven innings, giving the bullpen a bit of rest. It was Maine's 14th win.

As the race heats up, Maine cools down

John Maine threw 111 pitches last night. Unfortunately, he did it in 5.2 innings. The Dodgers collected nine hits, six runs, and a walk off Maine, who was outpitched by David Wells, whom the Padres released earlier this month because of poor performance. If Maine can't outpitch Wells, the Mets have a problem. But then, Maine's been having problems in his last four starts. During that stretch he's lasted only 5.1, 5.0, 5.2, and 5.2 innings, averaging 112 pitches per start. That's about 21 pitches an inning.

Maine's faltering at the worst time, and Peterson seems unable to get him back on track. If arm fatigue's causing Maine's problems, he needs rest, not more innings. But then, this is the pennant run, and Maine's one of the Mets' horses running in the race.

Maine wasn't the only pitcher in the Mets organization who threw too many pitches in too few innings yesterday.

In New Orleans in an afternoon game, the Zephyrs' Adam Bostick gave up three runs while striking out three. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

But Bostick also has problems finding the strike zone. In his next-to-last game he threw 85 pitches in four innings. Yesterday, he threw 92 pitches in five. Only 43 were strikes, not a good percentage if you want to win baseball games.

In the third inning, his pitches danced outside the strike zone often enough to grant free passes to three batters. Specifically, he walked the leadoff batter. The second batter tried to bunt, but Andy Tracy, the Mets first baseman, turned it into a 5-6-4 double play. Then, Bostick walked the next batter. And the next batter. But not the next batter. That hitter, Geovany Soto, cleared the bases with his 24th home run.

Luckily for him, he didn't lose the game even though he walked twice as many batters as he struck out. That's because the Zephyrs scored eight runs in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings; but Zephyr reliever, Steve Schmoll, couldn't hold the lead. In one and two-thirds innings he gave up five runs, none earned, on three hits and two walks. And then his replacement, Ryan Cullen, gave up a solo homer to give the Iowa Cubs a 9-8 lead, which is how the game ended.

This is the first game in Bostick's last 11 in which he walked more batters than he struck out. In the previous 10 he had never walked more than three. Maybe he just doesn't like pitching during the day. His ERA in day games is 12.27; whereas, in night games it's 5.49. And his ERA when the bases are empty is an amazing 1.99.

If any pitcher has to puzzle the Mets management, it's Bostick. He can strike batters out. In 582 innings he's struck out 619 batters. But he continues to linger in the minors. This is his sixth season in in which he hasn't made it to the majors.

If only the Mets pitching coaches could mix a potion that would make Bostick's pitches less adverse to avoiding home plate, especially during day games, then he might be able to break the bonds that are confining him to the minor leagues.

And now, news about four good pitching performances.

Down a level in Double-A, a starter is having more success. Kevin Mulvey pitched six innings of four-hit ball, holding the Trenton Yankees to the only two runs they scored in the game. He walked just one batter while striking out 10. Though he didn't gain the victory, the five Mets relievers that followed him held the Yankees scoreless until the 14th inning when a single, double, and error produced the Mets winning run.

In Single-A, St. Lucie sent the Mets fans who attended their game home with a smile. Deolis Guerra, a man the Mets are counting on to pitch at Shea some day, limited the Palm Beach Cardinals to two hits and no runs over five innings as the Mets shut out the Cards, 5-0.

In short-season Single-A, Brooklyn won 8-2. It was won by a pitcher whose record is even better than the game's final score. Dylan Owen. In recording his eighth win against only one loss, Owen held Vermont to five hits and a run in five innings. He leads the NY-Penn League in ERA, wins, and WHIP. His ERA's under 2.00, and his WHIP is under 1.00.

And for those who missed it, in Kingsport on Saturday Michael Olmsted, a pitcher whom I consider to have a lot of potential, started and pitched six innings of one hit, one run ball in which he struck out seven.

Bostick and Maine, more of the same

A second after I glanced at the New Orleans boxscore for last night's home game, I knew the Zephyrs were in trouble. Before the first Zephyr had stepped into the batter's box, the team was already three runs down.

The victim? Starter Adam Bostick.

In the top of the first he faced eight batters. After striking out the leadoff man, he walked the next batter, who then stole second. (Bostick needs to work on keeping runners close.) I don't know if the theft of second also stole Bostick's concentration, but he grooved a pitch to Oklahoma's cleanup hitter who smashed it over the left field fence. The next three batters were also happy to step to the plate, doubling, singling, and singling. Finally, Bostick was able to end the inning by getting the eighth batter to pop out to first.

In the third inning, an Oklahoma batter homered.

In the fourth, an Oklahoma batter homered.

In the fifth, six Oklahoma batters came to the plate, but by then Bostick was gone.

His ERA's now 6.07.

In his four innings, Bostick threw 85 pitches. That's about 21 pitches an inning. Control problems?

For the past few weeks the Zephyr starters have struggled on the mound, something I expound upon this week in my column.

Tonight Philip Humber starts. In his last outing he was also out fast: He lasted just 3.2 innings during which he surrendered four walks and five earned runs.

Stay tuned.

Thirteen hundred forty miles away, in Flushing Meadows, Queens, John Maine lasted 5.2 innings. He also had control issues. He threw 118 pitches or more than 22 an inning. Forty six of them were outside the strike zone. When he was pulled from the game in the sixth, Mike Cameron had homered, Josh Bard had doubled to deep right, and pinch-hitter Marcus Giles, hitting only .224 this season, had tripled to deep left. Did Willie leave Maine in an inning too long?

Maine's explanation of his outing? The New York Times quoted him as saying "“I felt all right today.” ... “It was just tough in the weather.”

It was a cooler than usual August night in Queens, the temperature sinking into the upper fifties after the game began; however, I suspect Maine's problem are due more to a tired arm if not a tired body.

North of the Big Apple, in Portland, Maine, at least one pitcher in the Mets organization still has his sea legs under him. Though Portland's temperature matched that in Queens, Kevin Mulvey, the Binghamton Mets ace, showed in seven innings what he's capable of: three hits, no runs, six strikeouts. The B-Met notched his 11th win as he lowered his ERA to 3.34.

For Zephyr weather watchers, the temperature hovered around 100 degrees at game time yesterday in the Big Easy.

A better starting rotation

Yesterday's amazing performance against the Nats by the 41-year-old Orlando Hernandez makes me wish the Mets had a four-man rotation, as teams in years past did with their starters. With that rotation, Hernandez and Tom Glavine could pitch more games while the other three starters, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Brian Lawrence would get fewer starts.

Further, given the performance of the Mets starters beyond Glavine and Hernandez, for my third starter I'd prefer Brian Bannister. This past Friday Bannister pitched a complete game for Kansas City, picking up his ninth win. Only two Mets have pitched complete games this season. Glavine and Maine have each pitched one.

Who would I take as my fourth starter? John Maine. My fifth starter would be Perez.

A way to measure a pitcher's effectiveness is through the use of two statistics: VORP and WARP.

Here is the 2006 VORP and WARP for each member of my starting rotation.

Pitcher	VORP	WARP	Wins
Glavine	37.1	5.5	15
Hernandez	19.4	3.5	9
Bannister	6.8	1.0	0
Maine	19.3	3.0	6
Perez	-1.9	0.3	1

VORP means Value Above Replacement Player. For a pitcher, a positive number represents the number of fewer runs that the pitcher prevented the other teams from scoring compared with what a replacement-level pitcher would have surrendered. A negative VORP means that he gave up more runs than a replacement-level pitcher would have. Looking at the VORPs in the above table, Glavine was the most valuable starter on the Mets.

For the Mets, Jason Vargas, Mike Pelfrey, and Dave Williams, all of whom have been Triple-A call-ups this season, represent replacement-level pitchers.

WARP means Wins Above Replacement Player. WARP refers to the number of additional games a pitcher won for his team beyond what a replacement-level pitcher would have won. For example, last season Glavine won 15 games. In his place, a replacement-level pitcher would have won about nine.

Why would I make Bannister my #3 starter ahead of Maine and Perez? Since the All-Star break he's gone 4-2 with a 2.64 ERA. In comparison, though Maine had a higher VORP last season than did Bannister, this season since the break Maine's been 3-3 with a 6.31 ERA and Perez has been 4-2 with a 4.39.

By the way, Ambiorix Burgos, the reliever whom the Mets traded Bannister for, is not even in the majors. He was pitching for the GCL Mets, a Rookie League team, and just joined the Zephyrs.

Good new about Maine and Mulvey but not Delgado and Beltran

Sunday the Big Club won a rain-shortened game, 5-0. John Maine once again demonstrated that he's the staff's most consistent winner, limiting the Nats to one hit in five innings to notch his twelth win. The 6'4" Maine has now won six times as many games as he won during his first two seasons of Major League ball, both with the Orioles.

Maine was the only member of the starting lineup who wasn't hitting at least .252. And six of the starting nine were hitting at least .286. Reyes had two doubles and Castro, whose hitting .327, homered.

The B-Mets lost, but when Kevin Mulvey left the game after six innings it was tied at two. During his six-inning stint Mulvey gave up two runs and two walks while surrendering five hits and striking out five. His performance didn't hurt his ERA, which now stands at 3.29.

More Met disappointment

I was disappointed when the Mets traded Xavier Nady, and when I see what he's been doing this season with the Pirates, I'm further questioning Minaya's astuteness. This season with runners in scoring position, Nady has hit .356. In the same situation, here are the stats for the Mets power hitters:

Lo Duca: .214
Delgado: .224
Beltran: .242
Wright: .295

Even Reyes is outhitting Delgado and Beltran when runners are in scoring position, hitting .290. And Mike Jacobs, one of the players the Mets traded for Delgado, is hitting .278.

The situation worsens when runners are in scoring position with two outs. In a New York Sun article dated July 23 Tim Marchman wrote that "Jose Reyes, as of the start of yesterday's game, was batting .218 with runners in scoring position and two outs. David Wright was batting .196, Paul Lo Duca .186, Carlos Delgado .167, and Carlos Beltran .111. It's embarrassing."

Nady in that situation is hitting .413.

With all the money the Mets are shelling out for their power hitters, especially Delgado and Beltran, they're not getting their money's worth.

M&M propels Mets to a win

M&M produced last night for the Mets, both homering. The first M is John Maine. The other M is Lastings Milledge, the second year player better known for the problems he's caused himself than for his play.

The action began in the fourth when Pirate starter Ian Snelling threw a high 1-0 fastball to Maine. Maine's shot just cleared the left field fence, landing in the Pirate's bullpen to his disbelief. The blast drove in the second M, Lastings Milledge, and upping the score to 6-2.

A Mets pitcher hadn't hit a home run since June 20, 2006 when Steve Trachsel, now with the Orioles, hit one against the Reds. The Mets won that game 9-2. Trachsel limited the Reds the two runs in six innings, one less inning than Maine pitched last night.

Milledge, who'll likely return to being a bench player whenever the oft-injured Moise Alou is deemed fit for action again, did some good hitting himself. Milledge went 3-for-3. His two-run homer in the eighth gave the Mets an 8-2 lead.

In addition to hitting a homer, Maine gave one up in the second to Jason Bay, one of two Bay hit in the game. The other came in the ninth off Guillermo Mota whose performance since his return from a suspension for taking performance-enhancing drugs has been underwhelming. Mota's ERA now stands at 5.97. That's worse than Jason Vargas 5.40 ERA.

The New Orleans Zephyrs for whom Vargas pitches won 4-2. Willie Collazo pitched the last three innings, giving up only two hits and no runs. His ERA's 3.49.

If Minaya believes the Big Club needs another reliever, instead of trading for one with another Big League club he should make an "internal" trade. Swap Mota for Collazo.

Cyclones fans: Read an interesting interview with reliever David Koons.

Two Mets make it to the ninth; Both win

These days it's unusual for a pitcher to reach the ninth inning, let alone finish a game. Yesterday, two different pitchers in the Mets organization did that. John Maine reached the ninth inning, and though he was unable to record any outs in it, he won the game, picking up his ninth victory. And down in Triple-A, the Zephyrs Brian Lawrence limited Omaha to one run and six hits. The last time a Zephyr pitched a complete game was in 2004. It was the 31 year old Lawrence's fifth win in seven decisions.