Wednesday, July 27, 2016

RE24 Check on Mets Hitters

The RE24 stat shows a player's impact on run scoring. Surprisingly, after only 72 PA, Jose Reyes ranks #3. A zero RE24 is average.

Among the Mets with a below average RE24 are Travis D'Arnaud (-2.70), Asdrubal Cabrera (-3.32), and Curtis Granderson (-3.70).

Mike Trout has the highest RE24 in the Major Leagues, 48.32.
Source: FanGraphs
RE24 is based on the concept of run expectancy. In baseball, there are eight different ways the bases can be occupied from nobody on base to the bases loaded. Data was collected on how many runs scored in each of those Base/Out states when there were no outs, one out, and two outs from the start of a plate appearance to its inning's end. Then, the average number of runs that scored in each of those 24 Base/Out states was calculated. That info gives an idea of about how many runs a team can expect to score, on average, in each Base/Out situation. So Yoenis Cespedes, in those 24 Base/Out states, caused almost 25 more runs to score than expected. Given that his RE24 is about two and a half times greater than the Met in second place, Wilmer Flores, it shows Cespedes' value to the Mets as a run producer.

For more on RE24, read Joe Posnanski's Stat of the Day: RE24.

Monday, July 25, 2016

A Quick Comparison of the Batting Averages of D'Arnaud and Lucroy

The chart below compares the batting averages of the Mets Travis d'Arnaud and the Brewers Jonathan Lucroy when they were age 24-27. In every one of those years, Lucroy had a noticeably higher average.

The green line indicates the National League average during the ages charted.
Source: FanGraphs

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Brooklyn Cyclones OF Jacob Zanon a base thief

Zanon played college ball for the Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) Warriors where he also excelled at stealing bases.

Some facts about him from the Lewis-Clark Warrior Athletics website:
In his lone campaign in a Warrior uniform, he led the NAIA in runs scored per game (1.429) and his 80 runs were the most scored by a Warrior since 2007.
Zanon was also second on the team with a .393 average as he collected 86 hits with 20 doubles and 14 home runs while driving in 56. He also flashed his speed on the bases, finishing the season a perfect 27-for-27 in steals. He was an All-NAIA West selection as well as an honorable mention All-American.
Zanon is the seventh Warrior to be selected by the Mets and first since 2007 which is also the last time LCSC had a player taken in the 15th round. 

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Mets rank well in pitching, poor in hitting so far in 2016

The 2016 MLB ranking to date for the Mets has some surprises.
  1. The Mets' team batting average is the second worst in MLB.
  2. They also rank next-to-last in stolen bases. Hopefully, Jose Reyes will help the Mets to improve that ranking.
  3. Their starters rank second in home runs given up per 9 innings, their relievers 10th; however, their relievers rank 7th in hits per 9 innings, their starters 13th.
  4. Their relievers have walked many more batters per 9 innings than their starters.
Source: RosterResource

Monday, July 18, 2016

Mets starter who throws most fastballs unexpected

Among the surprising statistics in the table below are that
  • Bartolo Colon is primarily a fastball pitcher who rarely throws a slider and almost never throws a curveball.
  • Noah Syndergaard and Logan Verrett throw sliders fewer than 10% of the time.
  • Steven Matz throws a higher percent of curveballs than any other Mets starter and has the biggest velocity difference between his fastball and changeup.

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Steven Matz's fastball not as fast as expected

I never expected that the starting Mets pitcher with the slowest average fastball velocity this season would be Steven Matz, his four-seamer taking even longer to reach the catcher's mitt than Bartolo Colon's or that Matt Harvey, with his health issues, would have the third fastest average velocity.

On the other hand, the fact that Harvey lasted the fewest innings per start (IP/GS) among the main "starting five" could have been a red flag that something was wrong.
Source of info in table: FanGraphs

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Left Elbow Will Delay Anthony Kay's Pro Debut

There's a big reason why the Mets second pick in the 2016 MLB draft, LHP Anthony Kay, signed for almost a million dollars underslot.
According to one source, the Mets found a Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) problem in Kay's left elbow. Here is what the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons says about Kay's injury:
The ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) is the most commonly injured ligament in throwers. Injuries of the UCL can range from minor damage and inflammation to a complete tear of the ligament. Athletes will have pain on the inside of the elbow, and frequently notice decreased throwing velocity.
The AAOS states that "In most cases, treatment for throwing injuries in the elbow begins with a short period of rest." Other nonsurgical treatments include a lengthy period of rest, physical therapy, changing how he throws when pitching, and anti-inflammatory drugs. "If nonsurgical treatment is effective, the athlete can often return to throwing in 6 to 9 weeks" . . . [but] "Athletes who have an unstable or torn UCL, and who do not respond to nonsurgical treatment, are candidates for surgical ligament reconstruction," better known as "Tommy John surgery".

Here's some info from the AAOS on the surgery:
To surgically repair the UCL and restore elbow strength and stability, the ligament must be reconstructed. During the procedure, the doctor replaces the torn ligament with a tissue graft. This graft acts as a scaffolding for a new ligament to grow on. In most cases of UCL injury, the ligament can be reconstructed using one of the patient's own tendons.
It appears that the Mets will not have Kay pitch this season. Hopefully, that and whatever other nonsurgical treatments he gets will enable him to resume pitching in games by next spring.