Z's, Clones done for season, Mets fall

Last night in Sacramento, one inning, the fourth, both cost the New Orleans Zephyrs their third playoff game and knocked them out of the playoffs.

In the fourth, starter Jason Vargas made the mistake of allowing the leadoff hitter to get on base. He walked him. Jeremy Brown, a player whom Michael Lewis devoted a chapter to in his book, Moneyball, singled. A fielding error, a double, a single, a sacrifice bunt, and a throwing error by Vargas followed before Vargas could get the final two outs. Four runs crossed the plate, one more than the River Cats would need to win the game. They were the only runs Sacramento scored in the game.

During his six innings, Vargas surrendered six hits, two walks, and four runs. He threw 97 pitches. If it weren't for the fourth inning his stats would have been three hits, two walks, no runs. And the Z's would have won the game.

On the same night the Zephyrs were eliminated from the playoffs, so were the Brooklyn Cyclones. Their opponent, the Auburn Doubledays, also scored four runs, however, the Clones were able to score only one. And, as in the Zephyrs game, all the opponent's runs were scored off the Clone's starting pitcher, Michael Antonini. Unfortunately, Antonini's regular season ERA of 0.46 didn't carry over into the playoffs.

Antonini had held Auburn scoreless until the fifth. But then, in the fifth, he walked the leadoff batter (Sound familiar?) and then served up a gopher ball. In the sixth, he got the first batter out, but then gave up a single and a home run to put the Cyclones behind 4-1, which is how the game ended.

The Men of Shea didn't have better luck. The New York Mets latest nemesis, the Philadelphia Phillies, found a way to defeat them again. If it weren't for the sixth inning, Tom Glavine would have notched his 14th win. But he allowed the Phillies to tie the game when, after walking the leadoff batter (Sound familiar?), he plated a pitch that left-handed batter Chase Utley hit over the right field fence.

Then, in the tenth, Mets catcher Mike DeFelice, who was in the game after Paul Lo Duca was tossed out of it earlier in the inning for arguing a third strike, dropped a foul ball. That allowed the batter, Carlos Ruiz, to get another chance at the plate, which he used to advance the runner on first to second. Soon after, that runner scored the winning run on a sacrifice fly.

That wasn't the first time that Lo Duca couldn't control his temper. And in as important a game as that was, his failure to control it played a factor in the team's loss. If I were Willie Randolph I let Lo Duca sit on the bench for at least a game. He needs a cooling-off period, a chance to reflect on the fact that when he loses his temper, it could result in the Mets losing the game.

Start the best

One of the visitors who leaves comments on this blog, Dave, gave a lot of thought to the one he left on September 9; however, his philosophy as how the New York Mets should fill vacancies in their 2008 starting rotation differs dramatically from mine.

I'd commented that I'd set aside spots for Tom Glavine and El Duque, if they both return, and put the other three up for grabs. That seemed to surprise Dave, who responded "Have they [Maine and Perez] not already proven themselves as legitimate starters this season?"

That's a valid question.

"Proven" themselves? To me, no.

In my book, a pitcher has proven himself when he can produce quality starts on a consistent basis. As of September 8th, Tom Glavine had 21 quality starts in 29 starts (72%), El Duque 17 in 23 (74%), John Maine 15 in 28 (54%), and Oliver Perez 14 in 25 (56%).

A pitcher who can produce a quality start in at least 70% of his starts has proven himself to me. A pitcher who can only produce a quality start about half the time he's on the mound hasn't. Glavine has proven himself, as has El Duque.

As a result, I'd make both John Maine and Oliver Perez compete for spots with Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Adam Bostick, Jason Vargas, and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets need to give their best pitching prospects a better chance to make it into their rotation than they have in the past. Otherwise,what message are they sending to them? Pitch well so you can pitch for someone else?

In pro football, many coaches in training camp encourage competition for all positions except possibly a few manned by stars. It adds a spark to the camp. If the Mets did that next string training with their starting rotation, I believe it would have the same effect. If either Maine or Perez complains, so be it. Let's see if they have the wherewithal to ward off the challengers. And if they don't, that should send a message loud-and-clear to the Mets front office.

It's all about winning, not maintaining the status quo just to keep players happy.

To make matters more interesting, the Mets should invite Dylan Owen to spring training. Last night in Brooklyn's first playoff game, Owen pitched five innings of four-hit, no walk, shutout ball in which he struck out seven. He's continuing to pitch in the playoffs as he did during the regular season when he led the New York-Penn League in both wins and ERA while compiling a strikeout to walk ratio of almost 6 to 1. If any Mets' pitching prospect deserves a chance to rub shoulders with its big leaguers, it's Owen. And though he's a long shot to win a spot in the rotation, he's a winner, so I wouldn't bet against him.

Finally — Dave, keep the comments coming. You've stirred up my thinking, and I really appreciate it.

Age and youth both win a league apart

Two pitchers in the New York Mets organization, one nearing the end of his playing career, the other nearing completion of his first full season, led their teams to victory yesterday with similar performances.

At Shea, Tom Glavine showed that at age 41 he's still "master of the mound." Even if he were 20 years younger he couldn't have pitched much better than he did in an afternoon game against the Astros. He had a perfect game for five innings and ended his day pitching seven innings of three-hit, one-run ball. Of his 86 pitches, 54 (63%) were strikes. It was his 22nd quality start in 30 starts (73%).

Aaron Heilman and Billy Wagner clinched the victory for Glavine, each pitching an inning of relief.

In Nashville, in the first round of the PCL playoffs, New Orleans starter Kevin Mulvey, age 22, pitched seven innings of shutout ball. He gave up four singles. And though he threw 88 pitches (57 were strikes), he didn't walk a batter.

Carlos Muniz, who was Mulvey's teammate at Double-A Binghamton for most of this season, pitched the final two innings. He did even batter, retiring all six batters he faced on three fly outs, a groundout, and a strikeout. Neither pitcher has yet to give up a run in Triple-A.

The Zephyrs victory clinched a spot for them in the second round of the PCL playoffs.

Though Glavine's name will likely be on the Mets roster for another year, at most, Mulvey's name should be on it for many years to come.

Oh and two and heading downhill

If I were New York Mets' pitcher Tom Glavine I'd be disgusted with both my teammates' and manager's performance in last night's 4-2 loss to the Phillies. Glavine pitched well enough to win, shutting out the Phils during his seven inning stint. But in the eighth, the Mets bullpen couldn't hold the lead and, in the tenth, it lost the game.

With both Heilman and Feliciano warmed up in the bullpen and Jimmy Rollins (a switch-hitter), Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell due to bat, Randolph sent Feliciano to the mound. Feliciano threw a pitch over the center of the plate that a decent high school hitter could have knocked out of the park. And Rollins, who's better than any high school hitter, did just that.

After getting Utley to ground out, Feliciano walked Burrell. I wouldn't even have let him face Burrell. Righties have an OPS of .644 against Feliciano. Feliciano walked Burrell. Then came a critical moment of the game. Charlie Manual, not known as a smart manager, outsmarted Randolph. He sent Shane Victorino in to run for Burrell.

The next batter, Ryan Howard, drove a ball to left that Moises Alou caught near the warning track. Randolph pulled Feliciano from the game and replaced him with Heilman to face Aaron Rowand. Almost everyone watching the game knew that Victorino was going to try to steal second. Heilman will never win an award for keeping runners close. Twice, Heilman threw to first. If he didn't throw to first on his next pitch, it was obvious Victorino was going to head to second. The situation screamed for a pitchout, however, both Lo Duca and Randolph must have been wearing earplugs. As Heilman delivered the pitch to the plate, Victorino took off toward second. Lo Duca's feeble throw hit the turf before the base and then skittered into center field, enabling Victorino to advance to third.

If I had any doubts about either Randolph's managerial ability or Lo Duca's defensive skill, I don't anymore. If Randolph can't even manage as well as Manuel, the Mets are in big trouble. And as for Lo Duca, not only did he show his defensive flaws, he also couldn't hit in a clutch situation. In the top of the sixth with runners on first and second, he grounded into a fielder's choice. All the Mets needed was a single from Lo Duca, and they would have won the game.

In the game, Lo Duca left four men on base. In 91 games this season he's driven in just 33 runs. The Mets need more offensive production from their starting catcher.

With Victorino now on third, Rowand hit a dribbler down the third base line that only Lady Luck prevented from crossing into foul territory. Victorino scored. Tie game.

In the top of the ninth, Lo Duca led off and struck out swinging. His contract expires after this season. The Mets shouldn't renew it.

The Mets sent Mota in to pitch the ninth. He retired the side in order.

In the top of the tenth, the Mets sent Reyes, Castillo, and Wright to bat, all of whom have hit pathetically this series. Combined, they're 1 for 26, with Wright and Castillo looking the worst at the plate. All three grounded out.

Then, in the tenth, Mota returned to the mound. He gave up a single to Victorino. With Howard coming to the plate, Randolph left Mota in the game. Righty against lefty.

I don't know if Wagner was available. If he were, he should have pitched against Howard. And if he weren't, I would rather have seen Schoenweis pitch against Howard. Anyone but Mota.

Howard slammed a Mota pitch into the left field seats. Game over. Glavine's seven innings of shutout ball got flushed down the toilet.

Mota's response to Howard's home run, as reported in the New York Post: "He's a power hitter, so I'm trying to go with my best." This season, Mota's best hasn't been good enough.

A better starting rotation

Yesterday's amazing performance against the Nats by the 41-year-old Orlando Hernandez makes me wish the Mets had a four-man rotation, as teams in years past did with their starters. With that rotation, Hernandez and Tom Glavine could pitch more games while the other three starters, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Brian Lawrence would get fewer starts.

Further, given the performance of the Mets starters beyond Glavine and Hernandez, for my third starter I'd prefer Brian Bannister. This past Friday Bannister pitched a complete game for Kansas City, picking up his ninth win. Only two Mets have pitched complete games this season. Glavine and Maine have each pitched one.

Who would I take as my fourth starter? John Maine. My fifth starter would be Perez.

A way to measure a pitcher's effectiveness is through the use of two statistics: VORP and WARP.

Here is the 2006 VORP and WARP for each member of my starting rotation.

Pitcher	VORP	WARP	Wins
Glavine	37.1	5.5	15
Hernandez	19.4	3.5	9
Bannister	6.8	1.0	0
Maine	19.3	3.0	6
Perez	-1.9	0.3	1

VORP means Value Above Replacement Player. For a pitcher, a positive number represents the number of fewer runs that the pitcher prevented the other teams from scoring compared with what a replacement-level pitcher would have surrendered. A negative VORP means that he gave up more runs than a replacement-level pitcher would have. Looking at the VORPs in the above table, Glavine was the most valuable starter on the Mets.

For the Mets, Jason Vargas, Mike Pelfrey, and Dave Williams, all of whom have been Triple-A call-ups this season, represent replacement-level pitchers.

WARP means Wins Above Replacement Player. WARP refers to the number of additional games a pitcher won for his team beyond what a replacement-level pitcher would have won. For example, last season Glavine won 15 games. In his place, a replacement-level pitcher would have won about nine.

Why would I make Bannister my #3 starter ahead of Maine and Perez? Since the All-Star break he's gone 4-2 with a 2.64 ERA. In comparison, though Maine had a higher VORP last season than did Bannister, this season since the break Maine's been 3-3 with a 6.31 ERA and Perez has been 4-2 with a 4.39.

By the way, Ambiorix Burgos, the reliever whom the Mets traded Bannister for, is not even in the majors. He was pitching for the GCL Mets, a Rookie League team, and just joined the Zephyrs.

A long season's becoming shorter

Going, going, ...

I'm not talking about a well hit ball. I'm referring to the Mets season.

Once again Tom Glavine pitched well. Once again Guillermo Mota didn't. Nor did Aaron Heilman. Those two gave up five runs in the Mets 7-5 loss.

In six and a third innings, Glavine held the Marlins to two runs.

In two-thirds of an inning, Mota allowed the Marlins three runs. His ERA's now 5.40; yet he remains on the roster while Joe Smith was sent down to Triple-A when his ERA reached 3.03.

The next inning, Aaron Heilman, whom I believe still would rather be a starter, let two runs score in an inning's work.

Mota got a blown save, Heilman the loss.

The Mets failed to score in both the eighth and the ninth. All they could manage was a single in the eighth and a walk in the ninth.

Carlos Beltran, whom the Mets are paying $13,571,429 this season, pinch-hit in the ninth with a man on base. He repeated what he did in the ninth the game before. He struck out.

Beltran's batting only .263 this season; however, he's not the most overpaid Met. Delgado's earning $14,500,000, and he's batting .249.

The Mets left 13 men on base. Amazingly, the Marlins left 25 runners on base despite getting only 11 hits and four walks.

In Triple-A last night, Smith pitched the ninth inning. He allowed a walk and a single and struck out two. No batters crossed the plate.

Luckily for the Mets, the Phillies lost. Unluckily, the Braves won. It's now only a matter of days before one of those two teams, if not both, passes the Mets in the standings.

Glavine wins 300!

Five nights ago his teammates failed him; yesterday, they didn't. Carlos Delgado, drove in more runs than the Cubs scored and the first two Mets in the batting order, Reyes and Castillo, combined for seven hits.

Through five innings, Tom Glavine was magnificent. He didn't allow a run until the sixth and left the game in the bottom of the seventh with one out and a runner on second.

Guillermo Mota replaced Glavine, who'd thrown 102 pitches. In Glavine's previous outing, Mota couldn't hold the lead, yielding the game-tying hit. Yesterday, Mota faced one batter, who singled, and then was pulled from the game.

Three relievers worked the bottom of the seventh. They allowed two more runs to score, but the inning ended with the Mets still ahead, 5-3.

Glavine won his 300th in his 659th game.

Since 1990 Glavine is only the fourth pitcher to reach the 300 plateau. The others are Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux. Maddux was the last to do it, accomplishing the feat on August 7, 2004.

Tom Glavine isn't the first Met to win 300 games, but is the first Met to win 300 while wearing a Mets uniform. Another Tom, Tom Seaver, won 311; however, Seaver won his 300th as a Cincinnati Red.

Glavine missed doing it on the same day as Seaver by one. Seaver won his 300th 22 years ago on August 4 while pitching for the other Chicago team, the White Sox.

The number of games that Glavine's will win as a Met won't come close to the number Seaver won. With his 300th win, Glavine has won 58 games as a Met, only four more than he's lost. In comparison, Seaver won 198 as a Met, 76 more than he lost.

In second place is Dwight Gooden who, in his 11 seasons with the Mets won 157 games, 72 more than he lost, giving him the best Won-Lost Percentage, .649 (calculated by dividing the total number of wins by the total number of decisions).

In third place is Jerry Koosman, who pitched for the Mets during his first 12 seasons, accumulating 140 Met wins which, coincidentally, like Glavine, was only three more than he lost.

In fourth place is Ron Darling with 99 Met wins, one more than fifth-place-holder Sid Fernandez. Darling accumulated his wins during nine seasons with the Mets and is the only member of the top five to pitch for the Mets, leave the Mets to pitch for another team (Montreal Expos), and then later rejoin the Mets.

It took Fernandez 10 seasons to gain his 98 Met wins. However, Fernandez had a much better ERA than did Darling, 3.14 versus 3.50. In fact, Darling is the only member of the top five in wins whose ERA is above 3.14.

The most wins by an active player no longer on the Mets is 66. Steve Trachsel notched that many during his six seasons with the Mets.

Pedro Martinez is number 48 on the list with only 24 victories as a Met. Surprisingly, Martinez has only 206 career wins as of July 27 though he's been pitching in the Majors since 1992.

Mets fail to win one for Tom

Yesterday's loss says more about the Mets team than just the fact that they lost. They lost a game I expected them to win. They lost on a day that Tom Glavine was going for his 300th win. They shouldn't have lost.

When he left the game after six innings, Glavine had limited Milwaukee to just a run on two hits even though he didn't have pinpoint control: He gave up five walks and threw 95 pitches, 48 of which were balls. He showed heart.

I saw a photo of Glavine in the dugout after he was pulled. I don't know at what point the photo wasn't taken, but disappointment has bent over his body and tensed his face. This was a game he deserved to win.

What concerns me is his teammates failure to win the game for him.

In the bottom of the eighth, after James Hardy singled off Heilman, Pedro Feliciano entered the game. He hit Cecil Fielder with a pitch. Guillermo Mota entered the game to face Bill Hall. Righty against righty. Hall's hitting .272 for the season, but .292 over his last seven games. On paper it looked like a good match-up. In five previous meetings Hall had gone hitless against Mota, striking out twice. But in yesterday's meeting, Hall won. He hit a ground-rule double to left. Game tied. Glavine could no longer get the win.

Guillermo Mota, the man with the 5.29 ERA, couldn't preserve the lead.

Mota isn't the only one responsible for Glavine's failure to gain his 300th. The hitters failed too.

Against seven Brewer relievers in 6.2 innings, Mets batters got just two hits and no runs while striking out five times. Six Mets failed to get the job done when at bat with two outs and runners in scoring position: Delgado, Green, Wright (twice), Easley, Milledge (who went 0-6), and new Met, Luis Castillo, who left four men on base.

Were the hitters outpitched? Willie outmanaged? Both?

And then, in the 13th, the coup de grâce. In his third inning of work, Aaron Sele couldn't get an out. Worse, he gave up a double and then a home run to the first two batters he faced. Game over.

Season over? I'm losing confidence in the Mets ability to win the games they need to win. They lack something. Heart? Fight?

Glavine has it. But one's not enough.

Tonight's game will be an indicator of how the rest of the season will go.