Start the best

One of the visitors who leaves comments on this blog, Dave, gave a lot of thought to the one he left on September 9; however, his philosophy as how the New York Mets should fill vacancies in their 2008 starting rotation differs dramatically from mine.

I'd commented that I'd set aside spots for Tom Glavine and El Duque, if they both return, and put the other three up for grabs. That seemed to surprise Dave, who responded "Have they [Maine and Perez] not already proven themselves as legitimate starters this season?"

That's a valid question.

"Proven" themselves? To me, no.

In my book, a pitcher has proven himself when he can produce quality starts on a consistent basis. As of September 8th, Tom Glavine had 21 quality starts in 29 starts (72%), El Duque 17 in 23 (74%), John Maine 15 in 28 (54%), and Oliver Perez 14 in 25 (56%).

A pitcher who can produce a quality start in at least 70% of his starts has proven himself to me. A pitcher who can only produce a quality start about half the time he's on the mound hasn't. Glavine has proven himself, as has El Duque.

As a result, I'd make both John Maine and Oliver Perez compete for spots with Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Adam Bostick, Jason Vargas, and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets need to give their best pitching prospects a better chance to make it into their rotation than they have in the past. Otherwise,what message are they sending to them? Pitch well so you can pitch for someone else?

In pro football, many coaches in training camp encourage competition for all positions except possibly a few manned by stars. It adds a spark to the camp. If the Mets did that next string training with their starting rotation, I believe it would have the same effect. If either Maine or Perez complains, so be it. Let's see if they have the wherewithal to ward off the challengers. And if they don't, that should send a message loud-and-clear to the Mets front office.

It's all about winning, not maintaining the status quo just to keep players happy.

To make matters more interesting, the Mets should invite Dylan Owen to spring training. Last night in Brooklyn's first playoff game, Owen pitched five innings of four-hit, no walk, shutout ball in which he struck out seven. He's continuing to pitch in the playoffs as he did during the regular season when he led the New York-Penn League in both wins and ERA while compiling a strikeout to walk ratio of almost 6 to 1. If any Mets' pitching prospect deserves a chance to rub shoulders with its big leaguers, it's Owen. And though he's a long shot to win a spot in the rotation, he's a winner, so I wouldn't bet against him.

Finally — Dave, keep the comments coming. You've stirred up my thinking, and I really appreciate it.

Reds sink the Maine

John Maine continued his slide yesterday, and New York Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson seems unable — or unwilling — to stop it. At the Reds' stadium in Cincinnati, Maine lasted only four and a third innings before being sent to the showers. It was his his second-shortest start of the season. His shortest occurred on August 4 when he lasted only 2.2 innings agains the Cubs.

During yesterday's brief stint, he threw 85 pitches, or about 21 an inning. Worse, he surrendered nine hits, three walks, and six runs, enough to make Willie Randolph wave a white flag and call for the cavalry.

“I think for the first time in a while, I didn’t feel good out there pitching and it showed,” the New York Post quoted Maine as saying.

If he was "feeling good" in his six starts before yesterday's, the Mets are in trouble. His ERA in his last seven starts is 7.07.

Coming into the game to try to stop the Maine massacre was a reliever who should have been called up a month ago. Willie Collazo was not only the best reliever on the Mets' Triple-A farm team, the Zephyrs, he was their best pitcher. He had the lowest ERA of anyone who pitched more than 35 innings (2.46), a WHIP of only 1.11, and a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.6:1. Against a Reds team red-hot for the day, Collazo pitched 1.2 innings of shutout ball. Though he walked one batter and gave up two hits, he also got two batters to hit into double plays.

His successor, fellow Zephyr Philip Humber, didn't fare as well. In the bottom of the seventh, he fell victim to two doubles and a single before he was able to get out of the inning. He did better in the eighth, not allowing a batter to reach base.

The bottom line? It's time to remove Maine from the starting rotation for at least one start and replace him with either Mike Pelfrey or Humber. Give Maine a breather. The season's taken its toll on him.

Radical? Some would consider it to be? Will Willie do it? No. He doesn't like to make radical moves. But in my view, it's riskier to remain with Maine.

***

In Brooklyn, Dylan Owen excelled on the mound again. In seven innings, he surrendered just three singles, didn't walk a batter, and struck out 11. Though the Cyclones won, Owen didn't get the win, but he did lower his ERA to 1.49. He's my nominee for the Mets Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.

Braves can't sink the Maine

With the Triple-A season winding down, it seems that Zephyr starters want to end their seasons on a positive note. The latest working toward that goal was Adam Bostick. Last night against the Round Rock Express, Bostick threw six innings of one-hit ball in the Zephyrs 3-0 victory. The lone hit was a double in the first.

Bostick still had control problems, walking five, but he did strike out seven. He threw 91 pitches of which 56, or 62%, were strikes. It was Bostick's sixth win agains seven losses.

The losing pitcher was Chan Ho Park, the ex-Met. The loss was his 14th; he's won six.

In the Zephyrs previous game, another ex-Met, Dave Williams, pitched well. He only surrendered four hits and two runs in seven innings. And two games ago, Jason Vargas, who also pitched briefly for the New York Mets this season, gave up only five hits and two runs in 5.1 innings. The Zephyrs won both games.

In Double-A, the Binghamton Mets lost as starter Robert Paulk lasted only 4.1 innings, surrendering all four runs that Akron scored in the game. Though he struck out seven, he also gave up seven hits and three walks, including a home run.

In Single-A, St. Lucie won behind the seven-hit pitching of Deolis Guerra. Though he gave up three runs in 5.1 innings, no Mets reliever gave up any, so the Mets were able to beat Daytona 6-3.

Brooklyn got another stellar pitching performance from Dylan Owen, who upped his record to 9-1. In six innings, he limited Aberdeen to four hits, one unearned run, and struck out four. He walked none while lowering his ERA to 1.65. Owen continues to lead the NY-Penn League in Wins, ERA, and WHIP, which before yesterday's game was 0.94.

On the hitting side, Cyclones leadoff batter Ezequiel Carrera pounded out four hits to up his average to .378. This guy can hit. Before being promoted this season to the Cyclones he hit .341 with the GCL Mets. In 179 at-bats with them his OPS was .866.

And finally, the New York Mets. Mets fans can breathe again. John Maine, who's been struggling for awhile, ended the Mets struggles last night. Against Atlanta, another pennant contender, Maine returned to pitching the way he did in the first half of the season when he deserved to be selected to the All-Star team (which didn't happen). He held the Braves to just three hits and one run, striking out eight. He still threw a lot of pitches (112), of which 62 were strikes (55%), but was able to last seven innings, giving the bullpen a bit of rest. It was Maine's 14th win.

As the race heats up, Maine cools down

John Maine threw 111 pitches last night. Unfortunately, he did it in 5.2 innings. The Dodgers collected nine hits, six runs, and a walk off Maine, who was outpitched by David Wells, whom the Padres released earlier this month because of poor performance. If Maine can't outpitch Wells, the Mets have a problem. But then, Maine's been having problems in his last four starts. During that stretch he's lasted only 5.1, 5.0, 5.2, and 5.2 innings, averaging 112 pitches per start. That's about 21 pitches an inning.

Maine's faltering at the worst time, and Peterson seems unable to get him back on track. If arm fatigue's causing Maine's problems, he needs rest, not more innings. But then, this is the pennant run, and Maine's one of the Mets' horses running in the race.

Maine wasn't the only pitcher in the Mets organization who threw too many pitches in too few innings yesterday.

In New Orleans in an afternoon game, the Zephyrs' Adam Bostick gave up three runs while striking out three. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

But Bostick also has problems finding the strike zone. In his next-to-last game he threw 85 pitches in four innings. Yesterday, he threw 92 pitches in five. Only 43 were strikes, not a good percentage if you want to win baseball games.

In the third inning, his pitches danced outside the strike zone often enough to grant free passes to three batters. Specifically, he walked the leadoff batter. The second batter tried to bunt, but Andy Tracy, the Mets first baseman, turned it into a 5-6-4 double play. Then, Bostick walked the next batter. And the next batter. But not the next batter. That hitter, Geovany Soto, cleared the bases with his 24th home run.

Luckily for him, he didn't lose the game even though he walked twice as many batters as he struck out. That's because the Zephyrs scored eight runs in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings; but Zephyr reliever, Steve Schmoll, couldn't hold the lead. In one and two-thirds innings he gave up five runs, none earned, on three hits and two walks. And then his replacement, Ryan Cullen, gave up a solo homer to give the Iowa Cubs a 9-8 lead, which is how the game ended.

This is the first game in Bostick's last 11 in which he walked more batters than he struck out. In the previous 10 he had never walked more than three. Maybe he just doesn't like pitching during the day. His ERA in day games is 12.27; whereas, in night games it's 5.49. And his ERA when the bases are empty is an amazing 1.99.

If any pitcher has to puzzle the Mets management, it's Bostick. He can strike batters out. In 582 innings he's struck out 619 batters. But he continues to linger in the minors. This is his sixth season in in which he hasn't made it to the majors.

If only the Mets pitching coaches could mix a potion that would make Bostick's pitches less adverse to avoiding home plate, especially during day games, then he might be able to break the bonds that are confining him to the minor leagues.

And now, news about four good pitching performances.

Down a level in Double-A, a starter is having more success. Kevin Mulvey pitched six innings of four-hit ball, holding the Trenton Yankees to the only two runs they scored in the game. He walked just one batter while striking out 10. Though he didn't gain the victory, the five Mets relievers that followed him held the Yankees scoreless until the 14th inning when a single, double, and error produced the Mets winning run.

In Single-A, St. Lucie sent the Mets fans who attended their game home with a smile. Deolis Guerra, a man the Mets are counting on to pitch at Shea some day, limited the Palm Beach Cardinals to two hits and no runs over five innings as the Mets shut out the Cards, 5-0.

In short-season Single-A, Brooklyn won 8-2. It was won by a pitcher whose record is even better than the game's final score. Dylan Owen. In recording his eighth win against only one loss, Owen held Vermont to five hits and a run in five innings. He leads the NY-Penn League in ERA, wins, and WHIP. His ERA's under 2.00, and his WHIP is under 1.00.

And for those who missed it, in Kingsport on Saturday Michael Olmsted, a pitcher whom I consider to have a lot of potential, started and pitched six innings of one hit, one run ball in which he struck out seven.

Mets owen a winner

If you've been reading this blog, you'll already know that I consider Cyclones pitcher Dylan Owen to be one of the steals of the draft. Yesterday, in a game in KeySpan Park against the Staten Island Yankees, Owen continued to dominate NY-Penn League opposition.

In six innings he limited the Yankees to three hits while holding them scoreless. It was fortunate he was able to do that as the Cyclones scored only one run.

His 1.82 ERA keeps him #2 in the league in that stat; however, his latest victory places him in the lead in the Wins category with seven.

Stephen Clyne and Eddie Kunz pitched the last three innings. Clyne yield three hits in his two innings, Kunz no hits in one. Clyne's ERA in 19 innings of relief is just 1.89. In his last 10 games he's given up just two runs, both on July 21 in the same game.

Since joining the Cyclones, Kunz has pitched in six games. He, too, gave up all his runs (3) in one game, his second outing of the season on August 6. Though his ERA is high at 4.76, that one game has skewed it.

Owen, Clyne, and Kunz were all college pitchers. Owen is from Francis Marion University, Clyne from Clemson University, and Kunz from Oregon State University.

The ability to dominate hitters in the NY-Penn League is an indicator of future success. Another ex-Mets organization starter who did that was Scott Kazmir. During his stay in Brooklyn he pitched 18 innings and had an 0.50 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio was 34:7 or 4.86:1, only slightly better than Owen's, which is 53:11 or 4.8:1.

To place Owen's K/BB stat in perspective, in 2005 Pedro Martinez was #2 among National League starters in K/BB ratio with 4.43.

Though Owen is small in size, at 5'11" and 185 pounds, compared to other Mets pitchers, such as Kunz, who's 6'5" and 250 pounds, Kazmir is only 6' and 170 pounds.

Mets and Cyclones win, Zephyrs get swept

I'll start with the good news.

This Sunday, August 12, at KeySpan Park, the Cyclones will give the first 2,000 fans at least 21 years old a replica of Ebbets Field. There's a photo of it on the Cyclones Web site, and it looks hot.

More good news. On the field yesterday, the Cyclones shut out Mahoning Valley, 2-0. Mahoning Valley, for geography buffs, is in Niles, Ohio.

In Ohio, Cyclone Dylan Owen notched his sixth win with a three-hit performance. His five innings of shutout ball lowered his ERA to 2.05. Relievers Daniel McDonald and Stephen Clyne, both 2007 draftees, polished off the Scrappers in the final two innings, allowing just a sole hit.

The New York Mets selected Owen in the 20th round of the MLB 2007 First-Year Player Draft. He could turn out to be one of the steals of the draft.

His success with the Cyclones isn't as surprising when you look at his college record. Before joining the Cyclones this season, he pitched for Franklin Marion University. Its Athletics Department reported that "Of the 77 hits he [Owen] allowed this season, only eight were for extra bases and he did not surrender a home run. He leads Division II in ERA and strikeouts. His lone loss came in the season opener."

His college accomplishments earned Owen first team recognition on the 2007 Rawlings/ABCA Division II Baseball All-America Team; Rawlings also selected him as their National Pitcher of the Year. Plus, Owen was the NCBWA Pitcher of the Year and made the 2007 National Collegiate Baseball Writers' Association Division II All-American first team.

Even more good news. The Mets won! Down 3-0 to the Braves in the bottom of the seventh, the Mets tied the game on three singles and a walk and then won it in the bottom of the eighth on Moises Alou's fifth home run.

The Mets had a close call in the ninth with Billy Wagner pitching. After surrendering two singles, he walked ex-Met Chris Woodward to load the bases with no outs. Luckily, Wagner got the next batter, Jeff Francoeur, to ground to Wright at third. Wright's throw to the plate beat Chipper Jones. One out. The other Jones, Andruw, then grounded into a double play. Game over. Mets won!

A Mets star of the game was Shawn Green, the subject of criticism of late in some Mets discussion boards. He went 4 for 4. And recent addition Luis Castillo upped his Mets average to .344 with 2 for 3 hitting. Coincidentally, Castillo now has the same batting average as the man he replaced, Ruben Gotay.

The Mets needed this win as the Phillies also won.

The bad news. Jason Vargas lost his seventh as the Fresno Grizzlies swept the Zephyrs. In five innings he gave up five runs, upping his ERA to 5.52.

Omar, why does Vargas' career seem to be regressing?