The Odds Are Against Mets Making Playoffs

In his book, Beyond Batting Average, Lee Panas mentions a study he did of the relationship between how many runs a team scored and how many it allowed for the 1988-2008 seasons and whether the team made the playoffs.

Offensively, teams that ranked in the top third for runs scored received a "Good" rating; teams that ranked in the middle third, an "OK rating; and teams that ranked in the bottom third, a "Poor" rating. Similarly, defensively, teams that ranked in the top third for runs allowed (with the top team the one that allowed the least number of runs) received a "Good" rating; teams that ranked in the middle third, an "OK rating; and teams that ranked in the bottom third, a "Poor" rating.

Applying Panas' concept to the current Mets team through June 28, the Mets are next-to-last (14 of 15) in runs scored (Poor)—only the Phillies were worse—and #4 in runs allowed (Good). Thus, the Mets are in the bottom third offensively and the top third defensively.

Using a table in Panas' book on page 20, in the 1988-2008 seasons, only six percent of those Poor/Good teams made the playoffs. That percent does not bode well for the 2015 Mets.