A Proposed 2019 Mets Starting Lineup

If you haven't viewed it yet, a website worth visiting is Roster Resource. On its Mets page is its projected 2019 starting lineup for the team. Hopefully, that won't be the one we see on opening day.

Today, we'll look at the hitters Roster Resource projects in the top-third of the lineup.

In the first spot is RF Brandon Nimmo. He might not be the league's best lead-off hitter, but in 2018 leading off he hit .266 with an OBP of .387. Baseball Reference predicts that in 2019 he will hit .262. 

Surprisingly in 2018, he was #1 in MLB in HBP, getting hit 22 times. That stat reminded me of Ron Hunt, an ex-Met on the team from 1963-1966. During that time he was hit by a pitch 41 times; then, after he was traded, while playing for Montreal (1971) he was hit by a pitch 50 times, which helped to boost his OBP to .402 even though his BA was only .279.

In the second slot is 3B Todd Frazier. In the past three seasons, Frazier hit .225, .213, and .213. In 2018, he batted second in 10 games and hit .214 with 17 SO and 1 BB in 43 PA. In his eight seasons in MLB he hit above .234 only three times. In the other seasons his average ranged from .213 to .234.

Baseball Reference predicts Frazier will hit .219 in 2019. Since he has not hit above .225 since 2015, his stats should qualify him for a place in the lower half of the lineup, maybe the sixth or seventh spot, not the #2 position.

In the third spot is 2B Robinson Cano, at 36 the oldest player in the starting lineup, and the only newcomer to the team in the Roster Resource lineup. Baseball Reference predicts that in 2019 he will hit .275, his lowest BA since 2008 when he hit .271 for the Yankees. 

I disagree with that prediction. In 2018, Cano played from March 29 until May 13 when he was suspended for 80 games for testing positive for the diuretic furosemide. Before the suspension, he was hitting .287/.385/.441. He returned to play on August 14. At season's end, he had increased his batting average to .303 and his slugging percentage to .471; however, his OBP dropped to .374. Because of that second half performance and the fact that from 2015-2017 he hit .287, .298, and .280 I think it is more likely in 2019 that he will hit about .290.

Next, the middle of the lineup.

Michael Conforto Seeking to Revive Bat in PCL

With Brandon Nimmo now seeking to establish himself as a Met, how is Michael Conforto doing in Triple-A?

From June 1-24 while with the Mets, Conforto was in a slump. In 59 At Bats, Conforto hit .119 with four singles and three extra base hits, a double and two homers with only one multi-hit game. He struck out 22 times, walking only five times, a 4.4:1 ratio. In comparison, in 2015 with the Mets he hit .270 in 56 games (174 AB).

In five games since his transfer to the Las Vegas 51s, Conforto is hitting .300 on a Pacific Coast League team with a team batting average of .292. Though he's has only one extra base hit, a homer, and two RBIs, he has also struck out only three times in 20 At Bats.

Conforto should return soon to the Mets. Hopefully, while with the 51s he can benefit from being under the tutelage of Jack Voigt, Las Vegas' hitting coach, as much as Nimmo did. But then, the Mets could have an interesting problem: if Cespedes stay in center, who should play left and right?

Verrett Won't Pitch This Season for Mets

Someone tweeted Logan Verrett, the Mets third-round draft choice, and asked him if he expects to pitch this season for a Mets farm team. Here's Verrett's response: "Taking it slow right now. Possible bullpens at instructional league."
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On the GCL Mets, recently signed Philip Evans is off to a much better start with the bat than top-choice Brandon Nimmo, though Nimmo did drive one out of the park today in his last at bat. In his two prior games, Nimmo struck out seven times in eight at bats, which made me wonder whether the Mets overrated him in the draft. Nimmo's now hitting only .182. In contrast, Evans went 2 for 4 today and is batting .429.

Though drafted in the 15th round, Evans received $650,000 to sign which, according to the New York Times, is "the most they have given a player selected after the second round."
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The GCL Mets got slammed today, 13-2. Their pitchers did too good a job of hitting Nats bats led by Craig Missigman, who in two innings enabled seven runners to cross the plate. Before today's game, his ERA was 3.86; after, 5.48. When you haven't pitched many innings, one bad outing can skyrocket your ERA.
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Nick Evans, who's been on a merry-go-round this season between the Mets and the minors, had a memorable day with the bat, singling, doubling, and homering in the Mets game against the Phils.

Brandon Nimmo's Pro Debut

Brandon Nimmo's pro debut with the GCL Mets won't rattle any records in the record book. He had one hit in six at bats, a single.

Here's how he did in each at bat. The number in parenthesis represents the inning of his at bat.

Nimmo
(1) strikes out swinging.
(3) flies out to center field.
(5) singles on a line drive to right field.
(6) grounds out to shortstop.
(7) grounds out to shortstop.
(9) flies out to center field.

Nimmo's Introduction to Pro Ball

It appears that Brandon Nimmo, the Mets first draft choice in 2011 will be joining the GCL Mets; however, I don't have high expectations about his performance with them this season. It's a big jump from high school ball to pro ball, even to a Rookie League team, as Joe Tuschak has discovered. Further, Nimmo will be joining a team that's not hitting well.

On the left below are the batting averages for the GCL Mets position players who played in the August 16 game. The average for those 11 players is just .215. The second-lowest average, .188, belongs to

Joe Tuschak, whom the Mets drafted in the sixth round in 2011 out of Northern High School in Pennsylvania where, in his senior season, he hit .473 with a .903 slugging average. And in his junior season, he hit .540.

Tuschak isn't the only GCL player struggling with the bat. The team is hitting only .227, which ranks them fourth from the bottom in the Gulf Coast League, which has 15 teams. The league average is .245.

Given Tuschak's and the other GCL Mets batters problems at the plate, I wouldn't be surprised if Nimmo's average is in the same range as theirs. It takes a lot of players time to adjust to pro ball, and Nimmo's starting his career when the season's almost over.

What Mets Will Get If Nimmo Doesn't Sign

With the deadline nearing for Brandon Nimmo to decided whether to join the Mets, here's what Jonathan Mayo says the Mets will get if Nimmo doesn't sign:

A team that does not sign its first- or second-round pick will receive a compensatory pick in the 2012 Draft. That selection will be made at the same slot, plus one. In other words, if a team doesn't sign the No. 9 overall pick, it would receive the No. 10 pick -- technically No. 9A -- the following year.

So if Nimmo doesn't sign, the Mets will be in an excellent draft position next year.

Here's a signing update from redraiders.com:

Texas Tech football player Bradley Marquez on Sunday signed a contract to play pro baseball with the New York Mets and announced plans to continue pursuing both sports.

The Mets drafted Marquez in the 16th round of the 2011 MLB Draft.

More news on the Marquez signing