Edwin Diaz Fails Mets Against Astros

When Edwin Diaz entered the Mets-Astros game yesterday with the game tied 3-3 in the bottom of the sixth, a runner was on first (Wrenn) with two outs. Using the 2018 RE24 table on Baseball Prospectus, the expected number of runs that would score in that Base/Out situation is 0.871. 

Unfortunately, that did not happen.

Here’s what happened once Diaz entered the game:

1. Wrenn stole second.
2. Chirinos doubled to left on the second pitch, scoring Wrenn.
3. Aledmys Diaz singled to center on the first pitch, advancing Chirinos to third.
4. Straw singled on the first pitch, scoring Chirinos and moving pinch-runner (for Diaz) Pena to third.
5. Straw stole second. Runners now on second and third.
6. Julks singled to left center on the second pitch, scoring both Pena and Straw. The first pitch was a strike and both pitches were almost in the same spot.
7. Mayfield popped out to end the inning — on the first pitch.

When the inning ended, the Astros were ahead 7-3.

During Diaz’s half-inning, Devin Mesoraco was behind the plate, having entered the game in the bottom of the sixth.

The Astros outstrategized the Mets. Astros batters were attacking Diaz’s pitches, not trying to extend the count. Two of the three hits off Diaz were on the first pitch, two were on the second.  Further, based on the pitch charts on ESPN’s Play-by-Play page for the game, all of Diaz’s pitches looked high.

Vargas faced four batters in the bottom of the sixth before Diaz replaced him. Bregman homered (to LF) on the second pitch. Brantley grounded out (to SS) on the first pitch. Alvarez flied out (to CF) on the first pitch. Guriel walked on four straight balls.

Going back to the bottom of the fifth, the Astros’ first 3 batters each ended their at-bat on the first pitch (groundout, single, double) before a failed stolen base attempt (Wilson Ramos was behind the plate) and a strikeout (on three pitches) ended the inning.

In review, the Astros’ batters were aggressive early in the count. For most of the game, Vargas with Ramos behind the plate was able to adapt; however, when the Mets’ pitcher-catcher combo changed, that pair could not adjust to the Astros’s game strategy. 

Hopefully, the Mets will learn from that failure.

P.S. Today, the Mets released Mesoraco.